Is Poland the next European Powerhouse?

Poland has a geographical location at the heart of the European continent. Its population, the sixth largest in the European Union, is largely young and well-educated. Their democratic pedigree is rather impressive; in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, when the rest of Europe was largely indulging in bloody religious conflict, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was ruled by an elective monarchy, held in check by a senate and elected parliament. The 1791 Constitution enacted by the Republic of Poland and Lithuania was influenced by ideas of the Enlightenment and was modern Europe’s very first constitution. Today, Poland is of the few EU member states that remain generally enthusiastic about the Union. Throughout Poland’s EU presidency last year, the Prime Minister Donald Tusk consistently reiterated that the solution to the continents fiscal crisis was “more Europe, not less.”
 
These are just a few of the reasons why Poland may emerge as one of the leaders of the EU in the coming years. Of course, Prague may challenge the notion of Warsaw becoming the next city of influence on the continent; Budapest also sees itself as setting a strong example for other Central and East European countries. As enthusiasm for EU membership continues to dramatically wane amongst the general public in West European nations, will the capitals of the East step forward?
 
LONDON STEPS BACK...
 
Britain, which was never the most Euro-enthusiastic of countries, has taken a sharp turn towards entrenched euro-scepticism in its politics, media and general public opinion. London currently seems to be varying between wanting nothing to do with the Eurozone crisis and being vaguely resentful when it’s not included in Eurozone summits. David Cameron recently tried to veto a future EU treaty; unfortunately for the British Prime Ministers pride, Britain didn’t actually possess a veto and the other 26 EU member states simply pressed ahead in the negotiations without Britain. It was all slightly awkward but Paris and Berlin, in the form of European super-couple “Merkozy” had long ago seized the unenviable position of spearheading the economic recovery efforts anyway and there simply wasn’t time to indulge Britain’s tantrum throwing.
 
...WARSAW STEPS IN
 
Donald Tusk recognised an opportunity and demanded a seat at the table of negotiations, pointing out that although Poland may not yet be a member of the single currency, it intends to join in the coming years. More importantly, perhaps, it intends to be one of the leading economies of the single currency zone and as such it wants a say in current deliberations which may affect the currencies future. But why is there suddenly a space for Poland to gain more influence within the EU?
 
THE SINGLE CURRENCY- CHANGING EUROPE’S POWER STRUCTURES
 
The Council of the EU is the EU’s main decision making body. Although votes are weighted in terms of population size, smaller countries receive more votes per capita than their larger neighbours and two thirds of member states must approve any decision. The system gives smaller states a fairer say in EU decision -making than a system of proportional representation would. So the power of larger states derives not necessarily from the size of their populations but rather the size of their economies. It is the sheer size and strength of Germany’s economy that has enabled it to take the lead in Europe. The economic crisis is currently absorbing all of Europe’s energies and affecting all aspects of its political and social life; therefore, those countries leading the European economy are, in turn, leading Europe.
 
WHY POLAND?
 
So why is Warsaw going to be the one to step forward? The most significant factor is undoubtedly their pro-EU political leadership, a consideration which rules out Prague or Budapest. The Czech Republic’s political leadership has turned firmly Euro-sceptic and Hungary’s Prime Minister is having some trouble observing democratic norms, which rules out those two possible contenders. Apart from population size, there also remains the remarkable fact that Poland is the only EU nation to avoid recession. Its growth may have slowed to a veritable crawl but it still remained ahead of its 26 fellow EU member states thanks to low levels of private debt and high levels of domestic demand.
 
Under its terms of accession, Poland will adopt the single currency no earlier than 2019 due to the necessity of constitution changes to facilitate a change of currency. Assuming of course there still is a single currency by then, Poland’s sizable economy is sure to impact the Euro-economy when it does join. In the meantime Warsaw is set to continue to demand a higher profile within the EU.